The Recession is Over
I dont usuallypost twice in one day, but the news is so good that I must. Today October 29th 2009 offically markes the end of the ression.
Moving to the big story of the day : the US Q3 GDP grew by 3.5%,much better than the expectation of 3.3% consensus & much better than the 2.7% that some big Wall Street houses had put out yesterday.This confirms that the biggest recession since 1929 is now over. this is the fastest pace of growth since Q3 07 & compares to a contraction of 0.7 in the previous April-June quarter.This shows that the stimulus package is working But there was additional good news on the economic front. Consumer spending, which accounts for over two thirds of the US economic activity, surged at a 3.4 % rate in Q3, the fastest advance since Q1 07. Spending had fallen by 0.9% in the previous quarter.
Also number of US workers filing claim for jobless benefits dipped by 1,000 last week, while the number collecting long term aid fell to the lowest reading in seven months. Another key gauge of the underlying of the labor market health, the four week moving average for new claims, decreased by 6,000, to 526,000, the smallest read since January.
Till yesterday the risk of a significant pullback in the US equity markets had mounted based on the sell off of both the S&P 500 & the Nasdaq finishing below their 50 day moving averaged for the first time since July, & also the inability of the S&P 500 to settle above the psychological important 1,100 level after managing to surpass it on an intraday basis last week. Today’s Q3GDP number could be a trend changer that could stabilize the equities & re-ignite the rally